How Tesla Plans to Scale Solar Production to 100GW by 2028

Last Updated: May 2026 • Based on Tesla Energy Annual Reports, Master Plan Part 3, and Industry Analyst Data

In April 2023, Tesla published its Master Plan Part 3- a sweeping blueprint for transitioning the entire global economy to sustainable energy. At the center of that plan sits one of the most audacious manufacturing targets in the history of the energy industry: scaling solar production capacity to 100 gigawatts (GW) per year by 2028. To put that number in perspective, the entire global solar industry installed approximately 450 GW in all of 2023. Tesla's target alone would represent roughly one-fifth of current global annual installation capacity- delivered by a single company.

This article breaks down exactly how Tesla plans to reach that target: the manufacturing strategy, the technology bets, the supply chain challenges, and what it means for solar installers, EPCs, developers, and energy buyers navigating the market over the next three years.

Tesla Master Plan Part 3: The 100 GW Vision

Released in April 2023, Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 is a 41-page technical and economic analysis of what a fully sustainable global energy system would require- and how Tesla intends to build it. The document calculates that transitioning the world's energy system to renewables requires approximately 240 PWh (petawatt-hours) of energy storage and roughly 30 TW (terawatts) of renewable generation capacity- predominantly solar.

Tesla's role in that vision is explicit: the company intends to become a full-stack energy company- manufacturing solar generation hardware, battery storage systems, inverters, and the software to intelligently manage all three. The 100 GW/year manufacturing target is the production milestone that would make Tesla a meaningful contributor to that global transition, rather than a premium niche player.

From Master Plan Part 3: "A sustainable energy economy requires approximately 10 TWh of storage and 30 TW of renewable power. Solar is the most abundant energy source on Earth. The goal is to make solar energy so affordable and accessible that choosing it becomes the obvious economic decision for every person and every business on the planet- not a values statement."

Tesla's Current Solar Position in 2026

As of mid-2026, Tesla Energy has deployed over 25 GWh of Megapack battery storage cumulatively and continues to expand its Lathrop, California Megafactory. On the solar side, Tesla deployed approximately 4.1 GW of solar across residential Solar Roof and solar panel installations in 2023, with growth accelerating through 2024 and 2025 as the Solar Roof production ramp at Gigafactory Texas gained momentum.

To reach 100 GW/year by 2028, Tesla needs to grow its solar production by approximately 24× from its 2023 baseline- an extraordinary ramp compressed into five years. For context, Tesla's vehicle production grew from roughly 500,000 units/year in 2020 to over 1.8 million units in 2023- a 3.6× increase in three years. The solar target requires a far steeper manufacturing scale-up curve.

The Gigafactory Solar Manufacturing Strategy

The cornerstone of Tesla's 100 GW plan is applying the Gigafactory manufacturing philosophy to solar- the same approach that transformed Tesla from a boutique automaker into the world's most valuable car company. The principle is straightforward but operationally brutal: build factories so large, so automated, and so vertically integrated that the cost of producing each unit falls faster than any competitor can match through design optimization alone.

Tesla's existing solar manufacturing presence is centered at Gigafactory New York (Buffalo), which produces Solar Roof tiles and solar panels under a partnership arrangement with Panasonic. This facility currently operates at approximately 5 GW/year capacity- a meaningful base but far short of the 100 GW target. Tesla's expansion plan involves constructing multiple new dedicated solar Gigafactories, with announced or rumored sites in Texas, Nevada, and internationally.

Solar Roof vs. Solar Panels: Tesla's Two-Track Product Strategy

Tesla pursues solar through two distinct product tracks- each targeting a different customer segment, price point, and competitive moat.

Why Storage Integration Is Tesla's Real Weapon

If Tesla were competing purely on solar panel efficiency or panel cost-per-watt, it would lose to LONGi, JA Solar, and Jinko Solar on every metric. Those companies produce panels at a scale and cost that Tesla currently cannot match. But Tesla is not competing on those terms. Tesla's strategic advantage is being the only company in the world that manufactures solar panels, residential battery storage (Powerwall), utility-scale battery storage (Megapack), inverters, and the energy management software to run all three- under a single brand, with a single app, and a single installation experience.

The Tesla Energy Stack: Solar Roof / Solar Panels → Powerwall (residential storage) → Tesla Solar Inverter → Tesla app (monitoring and energy management) → Megapack (utility-scale) → Virtual Power Plant participation. No competitor offers this complete vertical stack from a single manufacturer. This is the moat that justifies the premium and enables the 100 GW scaling ambition.

As battery storage becomes an expected component of every solar installation- driven by falling Powerwall costs, rising time-of-use electricity rates, and growing grid instability- Tesla's integrated offering becomes more valuable, not less, as the market scales. The 100 GW solar target is inseparable from the storage scaling target: Tesla needs both to grow together for the economics of the integrated platform to work.

The Cost Reduction Roadmap

Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 sets an explicit long-term cost target: driving solar + storage installed system cost to below $0.05/kWh of lifetime energy- making it cheaper than any fossil fuel source in virtually every geography on earth. To reach that target, Tesla needs to achieve dramatic cost reductions across the manufacturing, installation, and financing stack simultaneously.

Supply Chain Challenges at 100 GW Scale

The most significant obstacle between Tesla's current position and 100 GW/year is not technology- it is supply chain. Manufacturing 100 GW of solar panels annually requires quantities of raw materials and processed inputs that would place extraordinary stress on current global supply chains.

How Tesla Compares to Global Solar Leaders

To understand the magnitude of Tesla's 100 GW ambition, it helps to benchmark it against the companies that currently dominate global solar manufacturing:

Production Scale-Up Timeline: 2024–2028

Based on Tesla's public statements, analyst tracking, and known factory development timelines:

What This Means for Installers, EPCs, and Developers

Whether Tesla hits 100 GW by 2028 or by 2031, the direction of travel is clear- and it has significant implications for every participant in the solar supply chain. Here is what solar professionals should be thinking about now:

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Tesla's 100 GW solar target realistic by 2028?

It is technically possible but operationally extremely challenging. Tesla would need to grow solar production by ~24× in five years- a faster ramp than any solar manufacturer has achieved. Independent analysts at Wood Mackenzie and BloombergNEF generally project Tesla reaching 100 GW capacity by 2030–2032 rather than 2028. The target is best understood as a directional commitment and investor signal rather than a precision delivery forecast. Tesla's automotive production history suggests it often misses near-term timelines but ultimately delivers at the scale it targets.

What is Tesla's Solar Roof and how does it differ from solar panels?

Tesla's Solar Roof integrates photovoltaic cells directly into tempered glass roof tiles that replace conventional roofing material entirely. Unlike solar panels that are mounted over an existing roof, Solar Roof IS the roof- generating electricity while serving as the primary weatherproofing layer of the building envelope. It is more expensive per watt than conventional panels, but the total installed cost competes favorably when you account for the cost of a new roof that would have been required anyway. It targets the ~5 million US roof replacements per year market.

How does Tesla's solar manufacturing compare to Chinese manufacturers?

In pure panel volume, Tesla is dramatically smaller- shipping ~4 GW in 2023 vs. LONGi's ~67 GW and JinkoSolar's ~78 GW. However, Tesla does not primarily compete on commodity panel volume. Tesla's advantage is the fully integrated solar + Powerwall + app ecosystem- a combination no Chinese panel manufacturer offers. As battery storage becomes a standard system component rather than an optional add-on, this integration advantage becomes more valuable. Tesla also benefits from US manufacturing (IRA incentives) and brand premium in the residential market that Chinese manufacturers cannot access directly.

What is Master Plan Part 3 and what does it say about solar?

Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 (published April 2023) is a technical roadmap for transitioning the entire global economy to sustainable energy. It calculates that achieving full global electrification requires approximately 30 TW of renewable generation (predominantly solar), 240 PWh of energy storage, and the electrification of all transport and industrial heat. Tesla's role is to manufacture and deploy the hardware- solar, storage, and vehicles- at the scale required to make this transition economically inevitable. The 100 GW solar target is the manufacturing milestone that represents Tesla's meaningful contribution to that 30 TW global requirement.

How will Tesla's solar scale-up affect solar panel prices for buyers?

If Tesla successfully ramps to 50–100 GW/year, the additional supply will compound downward pricing pressure on the global solar panel market- accelerating a trend that has already reduced panel prices by over 90% since 2010. For project developers and buyers, this means structuring long-term projects with declining panel cost assumptions through 2028–2030 rather than today's prices. For installers, it means the margin opportunity increasingly comes from installation quality, storage integration, and O&M services- not hardware markup.