2024 Solar Industry Retrospective: Election Year, Tariff Turbulence, and Storage Cost Parity

Published December 15, 2024 — PES Supply Industry Outlook

The year 2024 will be remembered as one of the most consequential in the history of American solar energy. The United States installed a record-breaking 50 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of solar capacity, a 21% increase from 2023 and the largest single year of new capacity added to the grid by any energy technology in over two decades ([SEIA](https://seia.org/news/report-solar-adds-more-new-capacity-to-the-grid-in-2024-than-any-energy-technology-in-the-past-two-decades/)). Solar alone accounted for 66% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid, and together with storage, represented 84% of all new capacity ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2024-year-in-review/)).

Yet behind these headline numbers lay a year of profound turbulence. An election cycle introduced sweeping policy uncertainty. Tariff actions targeting Southeast Asian solar imports reshaped supply chains overnight. The bifacial module exemption — a policy lever that had shaped module procurement for years — was revoked. Battery storage reached cost parity with natural gas peaker plants. And virtual power plants emerged from pilot programs into commercial-scale grid infrastructure.

At PES Supply, we tracked these developments across our 50,000+ SKUs from 169 authorized brands to help installers and contractors navigate an increasingly complex procurement landscape. This retrospective examines the six forces that defined 2024 and what they mean for the year ahead.

1. Record Installations Amid Policy Uncertainty

The U.S. solar market set its second consecutive year of record-breaking capacity additions. According to the SEIA and Wood Mackenzie U.S. Solar Market Insight 2024 Year in Review, the industry installed nearly 50 GWdc of new solar capacity ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2024-year-in-review/)). Texas led all states for the second consecutive year with 11.6 GWdc, while California narrowly edged out Florida for the second position.

However, the growth was not evenly distributed. The residential segment installed 4,710 MWdc in 2024 — a 32% decline from 2023 and the segment's lowest year of installed capacity since 2021. The decline was driven by sustained high interest rates, elevated customer acquisition costs, consumer hesitancy ahead of the November election, and two high-profile installer bankruptcies ([Wood Mackenzie](https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/tracking-distributed-solar-and-storage-competitive-landscapes-in-2024/)). Forty-two states experienced annual contractions in residential capacity, with California declining 45% year-over-year due to the net billing tariff transition.

Segment Performance at a Glance

Segment	2024 Installation	YoY Change
Utility-scale	~41 GWdc	Strong growth
Commercial	2,118 MWdc	+8% (annual record)
Residential	4,710 MWdc	-32%
Community solar	1,745 MWdc	Growth continued

The commercial solar segment set an annual record with 2,118 MWdc installed, driven by strong deployments in California, Illinois, New York, and Maine. The contrast between commercial growth and residential decline underscored a structural shift: larger, professionally managed projects with access to favorable financing continued to expand, while consumer-facing residential solar contracted under the weight of macroeconomic headwinds.

The November presidential election introduced additional uncertainty. SEIA warned that sudden changes to federal tax credits, supply chain availability, and permitting policy could result in a 130 GW decline in solar deployment over the next decade compared to the base case, representing nearly $250 billion of lost investment ([SEIA](https://seia.org/news/report-solar-adds-more-new-capacity-to-the-grid-in-2024-than-any-energy-technology-in-the-past-two-decades/)).

2. Domestic Manufacturing Reshored at Unprecedented Scale

Perhaps the most consequential structural change of 2024 was the explosive growth of domestic solar manufacturing. Domestic module manufacturing capacity grew an unprecedented 190% year-over-year, from just 14.5 GW at the end of 2023 to 42.1 GW at the end of 2024, and surpassed 50 GW in early 2025 ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2024-year-in-review/)).

This manufacturing base is concentrated in the South, with 8.6 GW of capacity in Texas and 8.4 GW in Georgia. In a milestone for U.S. energy security, cell manufacturing was reshored for the first time in five years as Suniva restarted production at its 1 GW factory in Georgia ([NREL](https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/92257.pdf)). At full capacity, U.S. factories can now produce enough modules to meet nearly all domestic demand.

For installers and contractors, this manufacturing renaissance has direct procurement implications. Domestic content requirements under the Inflation Reduction Act's domestic content bonus credit increasingly drive equipment selection. The Department of Energy noted that structural construction components like steel and rebar must be 100% U.S.-manufactured, while "manufactured products" must include domestic content for 40% of cost, increasing to 55% over time ([pv magazine USA](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/05/22/market-impacts-from-the-recent-flurry-of-solar-policy-actions/)). Browse our solar panels to explore domestically manufactured options from brands like Qcells, Silfab, Mission Solar, and First Solar.

3. Tariff Turbulence: The Southeast Asian Trade Wall

If manufacturing growth was the constructive story of 2024, tariff policy was its disruptive counterpart. The year saw a cascade of trade actions that fundamentally altered the cost structure of imported solar equipment.

Key Trade Actions in 2024

Date	Action	Impact
April 2024	AD/CVD petition filed against Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam (CMTV)	Investigation initiated; tariffs could range 50-250%
May 16, 2024	Biden reinstated bifacial module Section 201 tariffs (14.25%)	Ended two-year bifacial exemption
May 23, 2024	Section 301 tariffs on Chinese solar cells doubled from 25% to 50%	Effectively blocked direct Chinese cell imports
June 6, 2024	Two-year tariff moratorium on CMTV imports expired	Circumventing producers now subject to duties
August 1, 2024	Cell tariff-rate quota raised from 5 GW to 12.5 GW	Allowed more duty-free cell imports for domestic assembly
October 1, 2024	DOC preliminary CVD determination on CMTV countries	Countervailing duties announced
December 2024	Polysilicon and wafer tariffs on China doubled to 50%	Wafers placed on Section 301 list for first time

The bifacial module exemption — which had allowed the dominant panel technology to enter the U.S. duty-free — was revoked effective June 26, 2024. Bifacial modules represented 98% of U.S. solar imports, making the exemption's removal consequential for virtually every utility-scale and commercial project ([pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/04/18/bifacial-panels-representing-98-of-u-s-solar-imports-may-soon-be-subject-to-tariffs/)). The U.S. International Trade Commission documented that the two-year tariff holiday ended as scheduled on June 6, and producers found to be circumventing orders on China became subject to duties ([USITC](https://www.usitc.gov/publications/701_731/pub5517.pdf)).

The impact on module pricing was immediate. Anza, a solar supply chain platform aggregating data from 95% of the U.S. module supply, reported the first module price increase since late 2022 in May 2024, attributing the reversal to the AD/CVD petition and bifacial tariff reinstatement ([pv magazine USA](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/06/12/solar-module-prices-increase-for-first-time-in-years-anza-reports/)). By November 2024, DDP U.S. spot prices for utility-scale TOPCon modules were assessed at $0.285/W ([pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/22/global-solar-module-prices-stable-to-soft-as-markets-absorb-news-of-u-s-election-policy-changes/)).

For a detailed analysis of the tariff landscape, see our companion article on Solar Tariffs 2024. Installers should review our solar panel and inverter collections to assess supply chain options.

4. Battery Storage Reaches Cost Parity with Peaker Plants

2024 marked a tipping point for battery storage economics. Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Plus (LCOE+) report, published in June 2024, demonstrated that utility-scale lithium-ion battery storage had become cost-competitive with natural gas peaking plants — long the default resource for meeting peak demand.

According to Lazard's analysis, gas peaking LCOE ranged from $110 to $228 per megawatt-hour, while lithium-ion battery storage systems were positioned as the assumed new resource in CAISO at $18.92/kW-month. In contrast, grid operators in MISO, SPP, and PJM continued to use natural gas peakers as their assumed new resource at $8.22, $8.56, and $10.20 per kW-month respectively ([Lazard](https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf)). Lithium-ion batteries remained the most cost-competitive short-term (2-4 hour) storage technology, given a mature supply chain and global manufacturing scale.

This cost convergence had practical implications for grid planners. In CAISO, the assumed new resource was already a 4-hour lithium-ion battery storage system rather than a gas peaker — a striking indicator that batteries had crossed the threshold from alternative to default in the nation's largest solar market.

For installers, the message was clear: solar-plus-storage is no longer a premium add-on but an increasingly default configuration. Sunrun reported a 54% battery attachment rate in Q2 2024, up from 18% in Q2 2023, following a deliberate "storage-first strategy" ([Utility Dive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/sunrun-storage-attachment-rate-jumps-to-54-as-ceo-cheers-rising-vpp-potent/723732/)). Explore our battery storage collection for residential and commercial storage solutions.

5. Virtual Power Plants Emerge as Grid Infrastructure

Virtual power plants — networks of distributed batteries, smart thermostats, and other grid-connected devices aggregated to provide capacity, energy, and ancillary services — moved decisively past the pilot stage in 2024.

Wood Mackenzie's July 2024 North America Virtual Power Plant Market report found 33 GW of VPP capacity operating or in development across 1,459 deployments participating in 321 market, utility, and retailer programs ([Utility Dive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/vpps-past-pilot-scale-but-policy-tech-challenges-remain-woodmac/724974/)). FERC's 2024 Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering estimated national VPP capacity at 30-60 GW, with the Department of Energy targeting a tripling to 80-160 GW by 2030 — enough to meet 10-20% of peak demand and save an estimated $10 billion per year in grid costs ([FERC](https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Annual%20Assessment%20of%20Demand%20Response_1119_1400.pdf)).

Notable VPP Deployments in 2024

Program	Operator	Details
Tesla Electric Partnership	Sunrun + Tesla	150+ customers enrolled; $400/year per Powerwall in ERCOT
Orange & Rockland (NY)	Sunrun	300+ solar-plus-storage installations; 10-year program
CalReady (CA)	Sunrun	16,000+ enrollees
PowerOn Puerto Rico	Sunrun	Nearly 2,000 participants
Daily Dispatch	Voltus	Dispatched by grid operator every day since April 2024

VPPs proved their resilience value during extreme weather events. During Hurricane Beryl in July 2024, more than 1,600 Sunrun customers in the greater Houston area maintained power through their solar-plus-storage systems, providing over 70,000 hours of backup energy ([pv magazine USA](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/10/23/sunrun-and-new-york-utility-embark-on-residential-virtual-power-plant/)). Voltus, a leading commercial VPP operator, was dispatched by a grid operator every single day beginning in April 2024 — a milestone signaling that demand flexibility had moved from emergency backup to standard operating procedure.

FERC Order 2222, issued in September 2020, required the six FERC-jurisdictional ISOs and RTOs to establish participation models enabling DER aggregations to compete in wholesale markets. By 2024, CAISO and ISO-NE had fully complied with the requirements, theoretically unlocking wholesale market participation from a much wider range of distributed resources ([DOE](https://liftoff.energy.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LIFTOFF_DOE_VirtualPowerPlants2025Update.pdf)). However, Wood Mackenzie noted that residential capacity accounted for less than 9% of total VPP capacity bid into wholesale markets, underscoring the segment's unrealized potential.

For installers, VPP enrollment should be part of the standard commissioning conversation for eligible battery systems. The ongoing revenue stream materially improves customer payback economics and strengthens the value proposition for solar-plus-storage. Shop our battery storage and hybrid inverter selections for VPP-eligible equipment.

6. AI in Solar Operations and Maintenance

Artificial intelligence moved from experimental research to production-grade solar O&M workflows in 2024. The Department of Energy's April 2024 report, "AI for Energy," identified specific opportunities for AI and machine learning across the clean energy sector, including detecting faults in solar panels, processing aerial images for remote job-site inspections, preventing avoidable losses through predictive maintenance, and improving demand forecasting ([DOE](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/AI%20EO%20Report%20Section%205.2g(i)_043024.pdf)).

Key developments included:

• ML-powered fault detection: Researchers at the University of Queensland developed Solaris AI, a system using machine-learning algorithms to detect, locate, and identify faulty and underperforming panels in real time using existing current and voltage data — potentially saving solar farm operators an estimated $200 million annually ([pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/03/12/australia-startup-offers-all-in-one-om-tech-to-save-solar-farms-millions/)).
• Drone-based electroluminescence (EL) mapping: AI-driven autonomous drone inspection advanced significantly, with EL testing revealing cell damage undetectable by conventional infrared sensors ([pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/05/07/how-drone-el-mapping-can-help-solar-insurance-claims/)).
• String-level monitoring: The Department of Energy highlighted model-driven approaches using big data available at PV sites for real-time fault detection, improving the ability to locate faults to specific hardware components while reducing false alarms ([DOE](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-11/9_Scott_Sheppard_Solar%20Applications%20of%20AI%20and%20ML%20Workshop%20-%20for%20release.pdf)).
• Predictive maintenance: NREL published research on SVM-based fault detection methods for 100% renewable microgrids, demonstrating supervised machine learning algorithms for detecting faults by protective relays ([NREL](https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/87961.pdf)).
• Autonomous cleaning robots: The solar panel cleaning robot market was valued at $134.3 million in 2024 and is projected to reach $305 million by 2032, reflecting a 10.8% CAGR as operators seek cost-effective O&M strategies ([Credence Research](https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/solar-panel-automatic-cleaning-robot-market)).

For a deeper dive into how AI transformed solar O&M in 2024, see our companion article on AI and Solar Operations 2024.

Looking Ahead: What 2024 Taught the Industry

The year 2024 demonstrated that the solar industry can simultaneously break installation records and face existential policy questions. Several lessons emerged for installers and contractors:

• Supply chain diversification is non-negotiable. The cascade of tariff actions — from the CMTV AD/CVD investigation to the bifacial exemption revocation — made clear that relying on a single sourcing region creates unacceptable project risk. Installers should maintain relationships with multiple module suppliers across different countries of origin.
• Storage is the new default. With battery attachment rates exceeding 50% at leading residential installers and cost parity with peaker plants achieved in key markets, solar-plus-storage is becoming the standard configuration rather than an upgrade.
• VPPs create recurring revenue. Programs paying $400-$1,500+ annually per battery system transform the economics of storage from cost-saving to revenue-generating, strengthening the customer value proposition.
• Domestic manufacturing is scaling fast. With 42.1 GW of module capacity and reshored cell production, U.S.-made equipment is increasingly available and often necessary for domestic content bonus credit compliance.
• AI is reducing O&M costs. From string-level fault detection to autonomous drone inspection, AI-driven tools are lowering the cost of operations and maintenance while improving energy yield.

PES Supply is committed to helping installers and contractors navigate this evolving landscape. With 50,000+ SKUs from 169 authorized brands, we offer the product breadth and supply chain expertise to support projects of any size. Browse our solar panels, inverters, battery storage, racking and mounting, and balance of system collections for your next project. Standard delivery is 7-10 business days.

Key Sources

• SEIA / Wood Mackenzie, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2024 Year in Review — seia.org
• NREL, Fall 2024 Solar Industry Update — docs.nrel.gov
• Lazard, LCOE+ Version 17 (June 2024) — lazard.com
• FERC, 2024 Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering — ferc.gov
• USITC, Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells Investigation — usitc.gov
• U.S. Department of Energy, AI for Energy Report — energy.gov