2025 H2 Solar Industry Retrospective: Module Pricing Stabilizes, Domestic Manufacturing Surges

The second half of 2025 proved to be a defining period for the U.S. solar industry. After years of price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and policy uncertainty, the market found a new equilibrium. Module pricing stabilized after the dramatic crash of 2023, domestic manufacturing capacity surged to record levels, and installation volumes remained robust despite a shifting policy landscape. For electrical contractors, installers, and distributors, these developments signal both opportunity and the need for strategic planning heading into 2026.

At PES Supply, we've tracked these trends closely. With 50,000+ SKUs from 169 authorized brands, we're positioned to support installers through every phase of this evolving market. Standard delivery is 7-10 business days.

Record Installations Despite Headwinds

The U.S. solar industry installed 43.2 GW of capacity in 2025, according to the Solar Market Insight 2025 Year in Review report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. While this represented a 14% decrease from 2024's record-breaking total, solar still accounted for 54% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid, retaining its position as the number one technology for the fifth consecutive year ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2025-year-in-review/), [pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/03/12/us-solar-installations-reach-43-gw-in-2025-despite-slowdown/)).

The third quarter of 2025 was particularly strong, with 11.7 GW installed — the third-largest quarter on record and a 20% increase from Q3 2024. By the end of Q3, total installations for the year had surpassed 30 GW ([SEIA](https://seia.org/news/third-largest-quarter-on-record/)).

Key Installation Metrics for 2025

Metric	2025 Value	Context
Total Installed Capacity	43.2 GWdc	14% decrease from 2024
Share of New Generation	54%	#1 technology, 5th year running
Utility-Scale Installations	34.7 GW	16% YoY decrease; many projects delayed to 2026
Cumulative U.S. Solar	279.2 GW	Up from prior year
2025 Investment	$67.6 billion	Strong despite policy shifts
States with 1+ GW Added	12 states	Record geographic spread

SEIA reported that 73% of all solar capacity installed in 2025 was built in states won by President Trump, including eight of the top ten states for new installations: Texas, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Utah, Kentucky, and Arkansas. The top three states by cumulative capacity remained California (55,056 MW), Texas (51,902 MW), and Florida (20,936 MW) ([SEIA](https://seia.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SolarCheatSheet_2025_YIR.pdf)).

A new solar project was installed every 59 seconds on average throughout 2025, underscoring the scale of deployment activity.

Module Pricing Stabilizes After the 2023 Crash

One of the most significant developments of 2025 H2 was the stabilization of module pricing. After the dramatic price crash that saw global module prices plummet through 2023 and into 2024, prices began to find a floor. According to the DOE's Quarterly Solar Industry Update, U.S. module prices remained near record lows at approximately $0.31/Wdc in mid-2024, carrying a roughly 190% premium over global spot prices ([DOE](https://www.energy.gov/cmei/systems/quarterly-solar-industry-update)).

By Q3 2025, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie reported that module prices had declined 12% year-over-year on average across all segments, driven by the expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity and healthy module supply. However, the rate of decline moderated significantly compared to the steep drops of 2023, indicating a market finding equilibrium ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-q4-2025/)).

Pricing Trends by Segment (Q3 2025 YoY)

• Residential system pricing: Down 3% year-over-year
• Commercial system pricing: Up 9% year-over-year
• Utility-scale fixed-tilt: Up 9% year-over-year
• Utility-scale single-axis tracking: Up 10% year-over-year
• Module prices (all segments): Down 12% year-over-year

The rise in system pricing for commercial and utility-scale segments, even as module costs fell, reflected tightening in labor markets, balance-of-system costs, and interconnection-related expenses. For contractors sourcing materials, this meant that while panel costs remained favorable, the total installed cost picture was more complex.

For competitive pricing on solar modules and balance-of-system components, explore our solar panel collections and inverter collections.

Domestic Manufacturing Surge: 65+ GW Online

The most transformative story of 2025 was the surge in domestic solar manufacturing. By the end of the year, U.S. module manufacturing capacity reached 65.5 GW, up more than 50% from 42.5 GW at the end of 2024. SEIA reported that 65 new or expanded solar and storage facilities came online in 2025 ([SEIA](https://seia.org/news/domestic-solar-manufacturing-booms-during-trump-administration-with-entire-solar-supply-chain-reshored/), [SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2025-year-in-review/)).

Major Factory Developments in 2025

Manufacturer	Location	Capacity	Status (2025)
First Solar	Lawrence County, AL	3.5 GW	Operational (opened 2024); 14 GW U.S. target by 2026
First Solar	Iberia Parish, LA	3.5 GW	Under construction; expected 2026
Qcells (Hanwha)	Cartersville, GA	3.3 GW (cells), 3.5 GW (modules)	Production began 2025; cell ramp ongoing
JinkoSolar	Jacksonville, FL	Expanding from 400 MW	$52M expansion to triple capacity
SEG Solar	Houston, TX	2 GW	Operational; first 45X credit sale announced
Various (LA & SC)	Louisiana & South Carolina	4.7 GW combined	Came online in Q3 2025

First Solar, the largest U.S.-based manufacturer, continued its aggressive expansion. The company opened its $1.1 billion Alabama factory in late 2024 and was progressing construction on a fifth U.S. facility in Louisiana. First Solar targeted 14 GW of domestic capacity by 2026 and 25 GW globally. The company also executed the sale of $857 million in Section 45X tax credits, demonstrating the financial value of the manufacturing incentive ([pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/02/27/first-solar-ships-14-1-gw-of-thin-film-solar-modules-in-2024/), [pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/09/26/first-solar-opens-3-5-gw-solar-factory-in-alabama/)).

Qcells, the U.S. arm of South Korea's Hanwha Solutions, was ramping its $2.5 billion Cartersville, Georgia facility — designed as the first fully integrated domestic crystalline silicon supply chain in the U.S. The facility aimed for 3.3 GW of annual capacity at each of four production steps: ingots, wafers, cells, and modules. However, Qcells faced headwinds in November 2025, furloughing approximately 1,000 workers due to customs delays on imported cells from South Korea and Malaysia. Most delayed shipments were eventually clearing customs ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/qcells-furloughs-1000-workers-us-solar-factories-due-stalled-shipments-2025-11-08/), [pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/09/26/qcells-secures-release-of-detained-south-korean-solar-cells-for-us-factories/)).

JinkoSolar expanded its Jacksonville, Florida facility, investing $52 million to triple production capacity, with plans to employ over 600 workers ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-owned-solar-factories-united-states-2024-07-17/)).

Supply Chain Milestones

• Cell production capacity: More than tripled from 1 GW to 3.2 GW since end of 2024
• Ingot and wafer capacity: First U.S. facility came online in October 2025 — the first since 2016
• Inverter manufacturing: Grew nearly 50% from 19 GW to 28 GW
• Manufacturing pipeline: 23 GW of modules, 34+ GW of cells, 25 GW of inverters, and 95 GWh of battery cells under construction or announced

SEIA noted that U.S. solar module manufacturing capacity grew from just 8 GW before the federal manufacturing tax credits to nearly 70 GW — an increase of more than 750% ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-storage-supply-chain-dashboard/)).

The 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit

The Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, established under the Inflation Reduction Act, was a primary driver of the domestic manufacturing boom. The credit provides per-unit tax credits for producing specific clean energy components including solar panels, cells, wafers, polysilicon, inverters, torque tubes, structural fasteners, and battery components ([SEIA](https://seia.org/initiatives/tax-policy/), [DOE](https://www.energy.gov/collection/view?paragraph=830883&page=1)).

The U.S. Treasury and IRS released final rules for Section 45X in November 2024, providing long-sought clarity on eligibility. Key provisions included:

• Tax credits for modules, cells, wafers, polysilicon, and backsheets
• Coverage for inverters and module-level power electronics
• Torque tubes and structural fasteners eligible
• Battery electrode materials, cells, and modules included
• Credit phase-out: 75% in 2030, 50% in 2031, 25% in 2032, 0% thereafter

SEG Solar announced the first Section 45X tax credit sale tied to module production at its Houston, Texas facility, which achieved 2 GW of annual capacity through two automated production lines ([pv magazine](https://www.pv-magazine.com/press-releases/seg-solar-announces-first-section-45x-tax-credit-sale/)). First Solar's $857 million in 45X credit sales validated the financial mechanism's importance to manufacturers' business models.

IRA Enforcement and Policy Under the New Administration

The policy landscape shifted significantly in 2025 H2. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted on July 4, 2025, revised numerous provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act. Key changes affecting the solar industry included:

• Clean electricity tax credits (Sections 45Y and 48E): Projects must commence construction by July 4, 2026, or be placed in service by December 31, 2027
• Section 25D residential credit: Ended December 31, 2025 (certain commercial projects on residences still qualify for the ITC)
• Storage ITC: Preserved through 2033, with phase-down beginning in 2034
• 45X manufacturing credit: Phase-out begins in 2030
• Prohibited Foreign Entity (PFE) restrictions: New rules restrict supply chain sourcing and ownership for projects seeking clean energy tax credits

In February 2026, the Treasury Department and IRS released Notice 2026-15, providing the first substantive guidance on PFE provisions. The guidance allowed developers and manufacturers to satisfy supply chain tracing requirements using existing domestic content safe harbor tables rather than tracing every subcomponent — a practical approach that significantly reduced compliance challenges ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2025-year-in-review/), [SEIA](https://seia.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/OBBB-fact-sheet_july-2025.pdf)).

SEIA reported that over 73 GW of solar projects had permits pending and were vulnerable to politically-motivated delays or cancellations, highlighting the ongoing policy uncertainty facing the industry ([SEIA](https://seia.org/news/third-largest-quarter-on-record/)).

Supply Chain Normalization

After years of disruption, the solar supply chain showed signs of normalization in 2025 H2, though new challenges emerged:

• Module availability: Ample supply from both domestic and international sources kept prices competitive
• Cell supply: U.S. cell production tripled but remained well below domestic demand, creating continued reliance on imports
• Customs and trade: Qcells' experience with detained shipments highlighted ongoing trade enforcement challenges; U.S. International Trade Commission actions on TOPCon solar cells continued to affect the market
• Wafer production: The return of domestic ingot and wafer manufacturing for the first time since 2016 marked a milestone, though capacity remained limited

Despite these improvements, actual production from domestic facilities remained considerably below domestic demand. The manufacturing capacity buildout represented future potential rather than immediate supply replacement ([SEIA](https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2025-year-in-review/)).

Global Context: China's Overcapacity

The global solar market continued to grapple with massive Chinese overcapacity. According to Wood Mackenzie, China's top 10 module suppliers shipped a record 477 GW of modules in 2025 but ended the year with a combined net loss of $5.4 billion. With module prices at the bottom and technological differentiation narrowing, Chinese suppliers accelerated their pivot into energy storage, where gross margins remained well above solar equivalents ([Wood Mackenzie](https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/global-cleantech-supply-chain-2026-outlook-half-time/)).

BloombergNEF noted that fixed-axis PV remained the cheapest source for new generation globally, with battery storage now cheaper than coal in many markets. The dramatic cost decline in battery storage was reshaping power markets worldwide ([BloombergNEF](https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/solar-set-to-rule-worlds-power-supply-three-things-to-know/)).

Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

SEIA and Wood Mackenzie projected that nearly 50 GWdc of solar would come online in 2025 (final figures showed 43.2 GW due to project delays), with almost 44 GWdc expected in 2026. Annual installations were projected to stabilize around 38-39 GWdc from 2027 to 2030. The five-year outlook from 2025-2030 put total solar deployments at approximately 246 GWdc ([SEIA](https://seia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/USSMI-Q4-2025-ES.pdf)).

Five-Year Solar Deployment Outlook

Year	Projected Installations (GWdc)
2025 (actual)	43.2
2026 (projected)	~44
2027-2030 (annual)	38-39
2025-2030 Total	~246

By 2036, cumulative U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 769 GW. Solar will remain the dominant power source added to the grid for the foreseeable future, despite changing market and policy conditions.

What This Means for Contractors and Installers

For electrical contractors and solar installers, the 2025 H2 landscape presents several key takeaways:

• Stable module pricing enables more predictable project bidding and quoting
• Domestic content options are expanding, which is critical for projects seeking ITC bonus credits and complying with PFE restrictions
• Policy deadlines (construction commencement by July 4, 2026) create urgency for project planning
• Manufacturing diversification reduces single-supplier risk but requires tracking multiple supplier capabilities
• Balance-of-system costs are becoming a larger share of total project costs as module prices stabilize

PES Supply offers a comprehensive inventory to support your solar projects, including solar modules, inverters, mounting and racking systems, balance-of-system components, and electrical panels and breakers. With 50,000+ SKUs from 169 authorized brands, we're your single source for solar and electrical supply needs. Standard delivery is 7-10 business days.

Sources

• SEIA - Solar Market Insight 2025 Year in Review
• SEIA - U.S. Adds 11.7 GW in Q3 2025
• SEIA - Domestic Solar Manufacturing Booms in 2025
• SEIA - Tax Policy and 45X Credit
• DOE - Quarterly Solar Industry Update
• DOE - Treasury and IRS Finalize Section 45X Rules
• pv magazine - US Solar Installations Reach 43 GW in 2025
• pv magazine - First Solar 45X Credit Sale
• pv magazine - Qcells Cell Import Challenges
• Reuters - Qcells Furloughs Workers
• Wood Mackenzie - Global Cleantech Supply Chain Outlook
• BloombergNEF - Solar Set to Rule World's Power Supply
• USITC - TOPCon Solar Cells Investigation